Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidaswin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BLBuzz Lightyearloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Buzz Lightyear
Bloodseekeroften banned
PLOV · 2 games
Axeoften banned
Steelborco · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
Steelborco · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Steelborco · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
PLOV · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
467 picks · 638 bans
Tiny
461 picks · 499 bans
Bane
440 picks · 269 bans
Sand King
421 picks · 550 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 532 bans
Storm Spirit
353 picks · 594 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 814 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 403 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Buzz Lightyear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Buzz Lightyear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:39
5ManMidas 42%Buzz Lightyear 58%
The model gave 58% on Buzz Lightyear — the game was taken by Buzz Lightyear in 37:43.
Game 2prediction correct34:30
5ManMidas 42%Buzz Lightyear 58%
The model gave 58% on Buzz Lightyear — the game was taken by Buzz Lightyear in 35:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteBuzz Lightyear · 58%
Series result5ManMidas 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2