Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NCNo Caploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Earth Spiritsignature
OmaR · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 6 games
Pucksignature
No!ob · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 5 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 5 games
Snapfire
OmaR · 5 games
Grimstroke
Eixn · 4 games
No Cap
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 2 games
Snapfire
TANNER · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Nikolica · 1 game
Bane
Nikolica · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shad · 1 game
Clockwerk
Nikolica · 1 game
Doom
meLes · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Shad · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 634 bans
Tiny
459 picks · 495 bans
Bane
439 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
418 picks · 546 bans
Death Prophet
353 picks · 808 bans
Storm Spirit
351 picks · 586 bans
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 396 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 524 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:24
PSG Quest 52%No Cap 48%
The model gave 52% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 52:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierNo!ob
BloodseekerShad
UndyingEixn
Windrangerntakii
Earth SpiritOmaR
Sand KingmeLes
53% · 119 games
HoodwinkTANNER
45% · 53 games
PugnaNikolica
Game 2prediction missed30:41
PSG Quest 51%No Cap 49%
The model gave 51% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by No Cap in 46:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierNo!ob
JuggernautShad
Skywrath MageOmaR
TimbersawmeLes
Shadow ShamanEixn
Storm Spiritntakii
42% · 93 games
Keeper of the LightTANNER
48% · 176 games
GrimstrokeNikolica
Game 3prediction correct32:22
PSG Quest 52%No Cap 48%
The model gave 52% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 43:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BatriderNo!ob
JuggernautShad
SnapfireOmaR
Marsntakii
PugnaEixn
UnderlordmeLes
57% · 66 games
Keeper of the LightTANNER
45% · 135 games
GrimstrokeNikolica
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 54%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3