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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
le Classiqueloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winter Bearwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

le Classique

Bane
Bane
Nagato · 3 games
67%
Io
Iooften banned
Nagato · 1 game
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Nagato · 1 game
0%

Winter Bear

Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
Flash · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Exotic Deer · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Exotic Deer · 4 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Ekki · 2 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Ekki · 2 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
Ekki · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
464 picks · 634 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
459 picks · 495 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
439 picks · 268 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
418 picks · 546 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
353 picks · 808 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
351 picks · 586 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 396 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 524 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% le Classique
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:27
le Classique 54%Winter Bear 46%
The model gave 54% on le Classique — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 39:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNagato
47% · 15 games53% · 15 games
RubickNO_Chanc3
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed25:24
le Classique 51%Winter Bear 49%
The model gave 51% on le Classique — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 34:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNagato
50% · 16 games50% · 16 games
Shadow ShamanNO_Chanc3
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 51%
Series resultWinter Bear 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2