Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionGghostssloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mad Kingswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ghostss
No games played over 6 months.
Mad Kings
Marssignature
Frank · 12 games
Ogre Magisignature
Mjz · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
Frank · 7 games
Leshracoften banned
Leostyle · 6 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mnz · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 634 bans
Tiny
459 picks · 495 bans
Bane
439 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
418 picks · 546 bans
Death Prophet
353 picks · 808 bans
Storm Spirit
351 picks · 586 bans
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 396 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 524 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% ghostss
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:28
ghostss 56%Mad Kings 44%
The model gave 56% on ghostss — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 26:26.
Game 2prediction missed32:33
ghostss 56%Mad Kings 44%
The model gave 56% on ghostss — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 42:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteghostss · 56%
Series resultMad Kings 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2