Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionSSeiyaloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
South Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Seiya
No games played over 6 months.
South Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 634 bans
Tiny
459 picks · 495 bans
Bane
439 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
418 picks · 546 bans
Death Prophet
353 picks · 808 bans
Storm Spirit
351 picks · 586 bans
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 396 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 524 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Seiya
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% South Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:38
Seiya 49%South Team 51%
The model gave 51% on South Team — the game was taken by Seiya in 55:30.
Game 2prediction correct14:32
Seiya 49%South Team 51%
The model gave 51% on South Team — the game was taken by South Team in 37:10.
Game 3prediction correct15:29
Seiya 49%South Team 51%
The model gave 51% on South Team — the game was taken by South Team in 25:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth Team · 51%
Series resultSouth Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3