Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavawin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MMatloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
Mat
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 634 bans
Tiny
459 picks · 495 bans
Bane
439 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
418 picks · 546 bans
Death Prophet
353 picks · 808 bans
Storm Spirit
351 picks · 586 bans
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 396 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 524 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:29
Lava 61%Mat 39%
The model gave 61% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 25:37.
Game 2prediction correct13:32
Lava 61%Mat 39%
The model gave 61% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 31:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 61%
Series resultLava 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2