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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MooN teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bald Reborn

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 9 games
22%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 8 games
13%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Rajjix · 8 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Excalibur · 7 games
29%
Io
Iooften banned
Eixn · 7 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Pablo · 7 games
14%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pablo · 7 games
57%

MooN team

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
464 picks · 634 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
459 picks · 495 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
439 picks · 268 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
418 picks · 546 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
353 picks · 808 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
351 picks · 586 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 396 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 524 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% MooN team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:11
Team Bald Reborn 42%MooN team 58%
The model gave 58% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 34:16.
Game 2prediction missed43:25
Team Bald Reborn 42%MooN team 58%
The model gave 58% on MooN team — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 37:04.
Game 3prediction correct20:33
Team Bald Reborn 42%MooN team 58%
The model gave 58% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 36:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 58%
Series resultMooN team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3