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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3loss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hydrawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 21 game
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
30%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 7 games
43%
Lina
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
29%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
43%

Hydra

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 28 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 26 games
73%
Bane
Banesignature
Muka · 24 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 23 games
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 21 game
48%
Weaver
Weaver
Muka · 21 game
52%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Askold · 20 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Zayac · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
465 picks · 631 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
461 picks · 495 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
440 picks · 268 bans
55%
Sand King
Sand King
418 picks · 546 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
353 picks · 810 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 393 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
350 picks · 585 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 524 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength57% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:59
X3 48%Hydra 52%
The model gave 52% on Hydra — the game was taken by X3 in 1:11:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNattyNarwhal
55% · 66 games52% · 92 games
KunkkaAskold
Kunkka
Terrorblade
Terrorbladenesfeer
46% · 75 games48% · 112 games
Grimstrokekickeed
Grimstroke
Lone Druid
Lone DruidShergarat
little data
Alchemist
Alchemistvelheor
29% · 3 games
Pugna
Pugnaantoha
51% · 60 games
Game 2prediction correct9:36
X3 50%Hydra 50%
The model gave 50% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 25:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinnesfeer
51% · 138 games49% · 254 games
Storm SpiritAskold
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
59% · 192 games44% · 222 games
Snapfirekickeed
Snapfire
Visage
VisageShergarat
57% · 15 games
Doom
Doomvelheor
51% · 79 games
Pugna
Pugnaantoha
51% · 52 games
Game 3prediction correct18:29
X3 49%Hydra 51%
The model gave 51% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 29:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magenesfeer
36% · 31 game44% · 89 games
Ember SpiritAskold
Ember Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaShergarat
50% · 21 game61% · 100 games
Hoodwinkkickeed
Hoodwink
Invoker
InvokerNattyNarwhal
47% · 121 game
Chen
Chenantoha
63% · 16 games
Alchemist
Alchemistvelheor
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 52%
Series resultHydra 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3