Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs predictionUuralanwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winter Bearloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
uralan
Dragon Knightoften banned
Rvze · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 1 game
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Necrophosoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 1 game
Winter Bear
Omniknightoften banned
Flash · 7 games
Gyrocopter
Exotic Deer · 5 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 4 games
Tusk
Ekki · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Exotic Deer · 3 games
Clockwerk
Ekki · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Ekki · 2 games
Iooften banned
Ekki · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
463 picks · 624 bans
Tiny
460 picks · 494 bans
Bane
437 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
417 picks · 542 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 808 bans
Dragon Knight
348 picks · 389 bans
Storm Spirit
348 picks · 581 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:33
uralan 51%Winter Bear 49%
The model gave 51% on uralan — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 44:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoRvze
MarsNO_Chanc3
Dragon KnightTheBloodySky
Game 2prediction correct44:29
uralan 51%Winter Bear 49%
The model gave 51% on uralan — the game was taken by uralan in 55:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritRvze
TinyNO_Chanc3
PangolierTheBloodySky
Game 3prediction missed30:34
uralan 50%Winter Bear 50%
The model gave 50% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by uralan in 44:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckRvze
HoodwinkNO_Chanc3
UnderlordTheBloodySky
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 55%
Series resulturalan 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3