Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NCNo Caploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
No Cap
Bane
Nikolica · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shad · 1 game
Grimstroke
Nikolica · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Shad · 1 game
Mirana
TANNER · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 1 game
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 1 game
Snapfire
TANNER · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
463 picks · 624 bans
Tiny
460 picks · 494 bans
Bane
437 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
417 picks · 542 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 808 bans
Dragon Knight
348 picks · 389 bans
Storm Spirit
348 picks · 581 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% No Cap
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:16
MooN team 55%No Cap 45%
The model gave 55% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 32:59.
Game 2prediction correct18:19
MooN team 55%No Cap 45%
The model gave 55% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 38:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 55%
Series resultMooN team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2