BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
RSGwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
465 picks · 625 bans
Tiny
461 picks · 498 bans
Bane
435 picks · 269 bans
Sand King
416 picks · 542 bans
Death Prophet
353 picks · 811 bans
Storm Spirit
349 picks · 581 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 519 bans
Dragon Knight
345 picks · 387 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 39%
Hero pool strength50% RSG
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total64% RSG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:44
RSG 64%Lilgun 36%
The model gave 64% on RSG — the game was taken by Lilgun in 46:32.
Game 2prediction missed30:30
RSG 64%Lilgun 36%
The model gave 64% on RSG — the game was taken by Lilgun in 32:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteRSG · 64%
Series resultRSG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2