Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionBLBuzz Lightyearwin 2:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TNTypical NAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Buzz Lightyear
No games played over 6 months.
Typical NA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 621 bans
Tiny
459 picks · 498 bans
Bane
434 picks · 269 bans
Sand King
415 picks · 539 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 809 bans
Storm Spirit
349 picks · 578 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 519 bans
Dragon Knight
345 picks · 384 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Buzz Lightyear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Typical NA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed62:30
Buzz Lightyear 33%Typical NA 67%
The model gave 67% on Typical NA — the game was taken by Buzz Lightyear in 58:17.
Game 2prediction correct30:30
Buzz Lightyear 33%Typical NA 67%
The model gave 67% on Typical NA — the game was taken by Typical NA in 36:32.
Game 3prediction missed37:20
Buzz Lightyear 33%Typical NA 67%
The model gave 67% on Typical NA — the game was taken by Buzz Lightyear in 39:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteTypical NA · 67%
Series resultBuzz Lightyear 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3