Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO1
result vs predictionWEWAP Esportsloss 0:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
MMatwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
WAP Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Mat
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 619 bans
Tiny
458 picks · 498 bans
Bane
434 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
415 picks · 539 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 809 bans
Storm Spirit
348 picks · 577 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 519 bans
Dragon Knight
345 picks · 382 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% WAP Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% WAP Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteWAP Esports · 50%
Series resultMat 0:1
Series predictionmissed