Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
sQreen's Squadloss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Uuralanwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
sQreen's Squad
Brewmasteroften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
Doom
sQreen · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
Snapfire
Copy · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 1 game
Tusk
sQreen · 1 game
uralan
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 1 game
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Necrophosoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 616 bans
Tiny
457 picks · 498 bans
Bane
434 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 538 bans
Death Prophet
353 picks · 809 bans
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 573 bans
Pangolier
344 picks · 519 bans
Dragon Knight
343 picks · 380 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% sQreen's Squad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% sQreen's Squad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:38
sQreen's Squad 50%uralan 50%
The model gave 50% on uralan — the game was taken by uralan in 25:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AxeWuiter
TimbersawTheBloodySky
PangolierCopy
Dragon KnightRvze
TusksQreen
Model check result
Model favoritesQreen's Squad · 53%
Series resulturalan 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1