Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
HFloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KBU.USwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 13 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Cloud · 10 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 10 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
Bane
Malady · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
ArrOw · 6 games
Iosignature
Malady · 6 games
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 615 bans
Tiny
456 picks · 498 bans
Bane
434 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 537 bans
Death Prophet
353 picks · 809 bans
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 572 bans
Pangolier
344 picks · 518 bans
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 379 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:43
HF 48%KBU.US 52%
The model gave 52% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 37:19.
Game 2prediction correct18:38
HF 48%KBU.US 52%
The model gave 52% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 36:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 52%
Series resultKBU.US 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2