Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
11Monkeyzwin 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PSG Questloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
PSG Quest
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 4 games
Earth Spirit
OmaR · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
OmaR · 4 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 4 games
Undyingoften banned
Eixn · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
No!ob · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
462 picks · 611 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 498 bans
Bane
431 picks · 267 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 536 bans
Death Prophet
353 picks · 804 bans
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 567 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 511 bans
Dragon Knight
341 picks · 375 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:11
11Monkeyz 43%PSG Quest 57%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 31:49.
Game 2prediction correct39:23
11Monkeyz 43%PSG Quest 57%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 31:01.
Game 3prediction correct28:14
11Monkeyz 43%PSG Quest 57%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 31:01.
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 57%
Series result11Monkeyz 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3