Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs predictionSSCAGIloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LCle Classiquewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SCAGI
No games played over 6 months.
le Classique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
462 picks · 611 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 498 bans
Bane
431 picks · 267 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 536 bans
Death Prophet
353 picks · 804 bans
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 567 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 511 bans
Dragon Knight
341 picks · 375 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% SCAGI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% SCAGI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:30
SCAGI 55%le Classique 45%
The model gave 55% on SCAGI — the game was taken by le Classique in 42:13.
Game 2prediction missed17:31
SCAGI 55%le Classique 45%
The model gave 55% on SCAGI — the game was taken by le Classique in 30:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteSCAGI · 55%
Series resultle Classique 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2