uralan vs No Cap — prediction DPC2S—ЗЕ 3 · Dota 2

Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3

result vs prediction

Uuralanloss 0:2

series probability

47%53%

probability at match start · final 0:2

NCNo Capwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

uralan

No games played over 6 months.

No Cap

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

462 picks · 611 bans

48%

Tiny

454 picks · 498 bans

50%

Bane

431 picks · 267 bans

56%

Sand King

414 picks · 536 bans

54%

Death Prophet

353 picks · 804 bans

54%

Storm Spirit

345 picks · 567 bans

55%

Pangolier

343 picks · 511 bans

52%

Dragon Knight

341 picks · 375 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% uralan

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total53% No Cap

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct21:52

uralan 49%No Cap 51%

The model gave 51% on No Cap — the game was taken by No Cap in 37:46.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

TinyRvze

51% · 336 games48% · 73 games

KunkkaShad