BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
No games played over 6 months.
Execration
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
Ogre Magi
RR · 13 games
Bane
RR · 12 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 10 games
Grimstroke
RR · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 8 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
460 picks · 611 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 501 bans
Bane
429 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 535 bans
Death Prophet
353 picks · 802 bans
Pangolier
344 picks · 512 bans
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 564 bans
Dragon Knight
340 picks · 372 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total57% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:46
Nigma Galaxy SEA 57%Execration 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Execration in 34:45.
Game 2prediction missed46:14
Nigma Galaxy SEA 57%Execration 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Execration in 34:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 57%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2