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BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Force · 17 games
82%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 14 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 11 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 11 games
91%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 8 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
cml · 8 games
63%
Weaver
Weaversignature
cml · 8 games
63%

Army Geniuses

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 9 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 9 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Azur4 · 8 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Varizh · 7 games
43%
Razor
Razoroften banned
db- · 7 games
43%
Bane
Bane
Varizh · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
461 picks · 611 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 504 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
430 picks · 271 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
414 picks · 534 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
353 picks · 804 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 512 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 564 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
339 picks · 371 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 53%
Hero pool strength61% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total64% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:20
Polaris Esports 61%Army Geniuses 39%
The model gave 61% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 40:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMac
59% · 289 games48% · 30 games
Nature's ProphetwoMy
Nature's Prophet
Naga Siren
Naga SirenNatsumi
44% · 25 games53% · 239 games
Tinydb-
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierNevermine
47% · 303 games53% · 220 games
Storm SpiritAzur4
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoomy
46% · 166 games51% · 81 game
Treant ProtectorNARMAN
Treant Protector
42% · 213 games
GrimstrokeVarizh
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct26:25
Polaris Esports 59%Army Geniuses 41%
The model gave 59% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 43:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMac
56% · 191 game50% · 66 games
Juggernautdb-
Juggernaut
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNatsumi
56% · 79 games52% · 237 games
Dragon KnightAzur4
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsNevermine
46% · 428 games53% · 134 games
TimbersawwoMy
Timbersaw
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoomy
51% · 124 games44% · 129 games
RubickNARMAN
Rubick
43% · 256 games
GrimstrokeVarizh
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 64%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2