Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionHHHoly Highloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Black Ice eSportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Holy High
No games played over 6 months.
Black Ice eSports
Jakirosignature
Sonic · 6 games
Dawnbreaker
Shoe · 2 games
Disruptor
Sonic · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Shoe · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
461 picks · 611 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 504 bans
Bane
430 picks · 271 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 534 bans
Death Prophet
353 picks · 804 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 512 bans
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 564 bans
Dragon Knight
339 picks · 371 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Black Ice eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Black Ice eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Ice eSports · 57%
Series resultBlack Ice eSports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect