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CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
paiN Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 45 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 44 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 37 games
46%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 35 games
60%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 34 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 32 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 30 games
47%

paiN Gaming

Razor
Razoroften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 4 games
25%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 3 games
33%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Elmisho · 3 games
33%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Frank · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
596 picks · 813 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
532 picks · 551 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
429 picks · 396 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
426 picks · 297 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1021 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
382 picks · 660 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 588 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
350 picks · 517 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:22
HULIGANI 52%paiN Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 51:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendssnovv1
50% · 267 games50% · 609 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
50% · 470 games48% · 384 games
UrsaWits
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
53% · 476 games50% · 388 games
SlardarFrank
Slardar
Disruptor
DisruptorRESPECT
47% · 319 games54% · 457 games
RingmasterElmisho
Ringmaster
Tusk
Tusksayuw
47% · 664 games53% · 358 games
WindrangerScofield
Windranger
Game 2prediction missed2:17
HULIGANI 52%paiN Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by paiN Gaming in 29:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinssnovv1
57% · 229 games53% · 354 games
Shadow FiendWits
Shadow Fiend
Puck
PuckMirage
56% · 332 games42% · 195 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCorrupted
42% · 104 games52% · 267 games
UnderlordFrank
Underlord
Tusk
Tusksayuw
48% · 443 games49% · 203 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Warlock
WarlockRESPECT
50% · 368 games51% · 457 games
Shadow DemonElmisho
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed5:23
HULIGANI 50%paiN Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by paiN Gaming in 30:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinssnovv1
46% · 197 games51% · 310 games
Shadow FiendWits
Shadow Fiend
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
51% · 277 games52% · 308 games
Sand KingDarkMago
Sand King
Tiny
TinyMirage
41% · 348 games56% · 133 games
EnigmaFrank
Enigma
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
50% · 101 game66% · 112 games
Treant ProtectorElmisho
Treant Protector
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
40% · 451 game50% · 511 games
Shadow DemonScofield
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 52%
Series resultpaiN Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3