PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Academy
Dark Willow
Aidar · 18 games
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 16 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 15 games
Dazzleoften banned
kyford · 13 games
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 13 games
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 12 games
Techies
Aidar · 11 games
Warlock
kyford · 11 games
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 46 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 44 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 41 game
Marsoften banned
Palantimos · 40 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 33 games
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 32 games
Tusk
Ekki · 32 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 30 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
593 picks · 813 bans
Tiny
533 picks · 549 bans
Tusk
427 picks · 395 bans
Warlock
425 picks · 294 bans
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1019 bans
Ember Spirit
382 picks · 661 bans
Mars
369 picks · 587 bans
Centaur Warrunner
348 picks · 518 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 54%
Hero pool strength59% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total89% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:36
Team Spirit Academy 26%Pipsqueak+4 74%
The model gave 74% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 44:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light86
Shadow FiendLowskill
Clinkzhairo
Dazzleряф^^
Bristlebackkae
MarsMalik
Warlockkyford
TuskEkki
LionAidar
Jakiroaik
Game 2prediction correct24:57
Team Spirit Academy 24%Pipsqueak+4 76%
The model gave 76% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmasterhairo
Templar AssassinLowskill
Puck86
Dazzleряф^^
Kunkkakae
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Disruptorkyford
JakiroEkki
Dark WillowAidar
Marciaik
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 89%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2