CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Power Rangersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 36 games
Warlock
Rein · 31 game
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 30 games
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
Tusk
swedenstrong · 29 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 28 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 25 games
Jakirooften banned
Rein · 25 games
Power Rangers
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 19 games
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 15 games
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 14 games
Phoenixsignature
Immersion · 14 games
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
Razorsignature
nesfeer · 11 games
Templar Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
592 picks · 814 bans
Tiny
531 picks · 548 bans
Tusk
426 picks · 395 bans
Warlock
423 picks · 295 bans
Shadow Demon
387 picks · 1020 bans
Ember Spirit
383 picks · 659 bans
Mars
369 picks · 585 bans
Centaur Warrunner
347 picks · 516 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Power Rangers
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total52% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:10
1w Team 51%Power Rangers 49%
The model gave 51% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 32:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenv1olent-
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Queen of PainSquad1x
Slardarnicky`cool
Largoмистер мораль
AxeAlberkaaa
Jakiroswedenstrong
Shadow DemonImmersion
WarlockRein
Ancient ApparitionHduo
Game 2prediction correct19:42
1w Team 50%Power Rangers 50%
The model gave 50% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 46:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Keznesfeer
TinySquad1x
PhoenixAlberkaaa
Beastmasterv1olent-
Centaur Warrunnernicky`cool
WarlockRein
LargoHduo
Marciswedenstrong
TuskImmersion
Game 3prediction missed22:17
1w Team 48%Power Rangers 52%
The model gave 52% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by 1w Team in 41:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunav1olent-
Faceless Voidnesfeer
Bristlebackмистер мораль
UnderlordAlberkaaa
Void SpiritSquad1x
Tinynicky`cool
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
WarlockHduo
Shadow DemonRein
HoodwinkImmersion
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 52%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3