?
arrow_backBack to match
Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
11Monkeyzloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

11Monkeyz

No games played over 6 months.

KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI

Bane
Banesignature
smN · 18 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hellscream · 10 games
60%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Corrupted · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 9 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Hellscream · 8 games
75%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Munkushi~ · 7 games
86%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Hellscream · 7 games
57%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
smN · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
461 picks · 613 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 504 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
430 picks · 270 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
413 picks · 535 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
354 picks · 804 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 564 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 514 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
338 picks · 371 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:34
11Monkeyz 39%KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 61%
The model gave 61% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 45:10.
Game 2prediction correct33:15
11Monkeyz 39%KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 61%
The model gave 61% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 24:21.
Game 3prediction correct27:47
11Monkeyz 39%KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 61%
The model gave 61% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 36:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI · 61%
Series resultKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3