ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO5
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:3series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:3
OGwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Banesignature
DuBu · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 11 games
Monkey Kingsignature
MoonMeander · 11 games
Death Prophetsignature
DuBu · 10 games
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
OG
Marsoften banned
ATF · 19 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 19 games
Bane
Misha · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 14 games
Kunkkasignature
bzm · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 12 games
Puckoften banned
bzm · 12 games
Iooften banned
Taiga · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
472 picks · 627 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 505 bans
Bane
438 picks · 277 bans
Sand King
410 picks · 533 bans
Death Prophet
358 picks · 804 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 519 bans
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 563 bans
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 565 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% TSM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:9
TSM 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingTimado
KunkkaYuragi
Pangolierbryle-
Linabzm
Death ProphetSabeRLight-
UnderlordATF
EnigmaMoonMeander
RubickTaiga
PugnaDuBu
WindrangerCeb
Game 2prediction missed14:45
TSM 51%OG 49%
The model gave 51% on TSM — the game was taken by OG in 38:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetTimado
Monkey KingYuragi
Puckbryle-
Storm Spiritbzm
DoomMoonMeander
Night StalkerATF
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
SnapfireTaiga
PugnaDuBu
WindrangerCeb
Game 3prediction missed27:31
TSM 51%OG 49%
The model gave 51% on TSM — the game was taken by OG in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingTimado
Invokerbzm
Leshracbryle-
Templar AssassinYuragi
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
Dragon KnightATF
Monkey KingMoonMeander
MiranaCeb
PugnaDuBu
SnapfireTaiga
Game 4prediction correct4:37
TSM 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingTimado
BloodseekerYuragi
Leshracbryle-
MarsATF
Dragon KnightSabeRLight-
Storm Spiritbzm
SnapfireMoonMeander
GrimstrokeTaiga
SilencerDuBu
WindrangerCeb
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 51%
Series resultOG 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 4