ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomsignature
33 · 26 games
Banesignature
Fata · 21 game
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 19 games
Iosignature
Sneyking · 19 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 17 games
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 17 games
OG
Marsoften banned
ATF · 19 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 18 games
Bane
Misha · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 14 games
Kunkkasignature
bzm · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 12 games
Snapfire
Taiga · 11 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
477 picks · 629 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 504 bans
Bane
443 picks · 280 bans
Sand King
411 picks · 533 bans
Death Prophet
361 picks · 805 bans
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 562 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 522 bans
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 565 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total59% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:31
Tundra Esports 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 27:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautSkiter
Monkey KingYuragi
InvokerNine
RazorATF
Visage33
Puckbzm
DoomSaksa
WindrangerCeb
LichSneyking
ViperTaiga
Game 2prediction missed15:33
Tundra Esports 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 35:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordSkiter
Puckbzm
Doom33
BloodseekerATF
PangolierNine
Chaos KnightYuragi
HoodwinkSaksa
Monkey KingCeb
PugnaSneyking
IoTaiga
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 59%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2