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CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AVULUSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 46 games
39%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 44 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 42 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Palantimos · 38 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 33 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 33 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 32 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 31 game
45%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 26 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 25 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 23 games
52%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 17 games
24%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 16 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 16 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Wein · 15 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
590 picks · 816 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
528 picks · 549 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
427 picks · 394 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
426 picks · 294 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1017 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 657 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 584 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
349 picks · 518 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total64% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:29
Pipsqueak+4 58%AVULUS 42%
The model gave 58% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by AVULUS in 50:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaLowskill
44% · 83 games57% · 216 games
Templar AssassinDarkLord^
Templar Assassin
Mars
MarsMalik
51% · 388 games48% · 230 games
Beastmasterdualrazee
Beastmaster
Viper
Viperряф^^
55% · 123 games50% · 125 games
RazorPalantimos
Razor
Phoenix
Phoenixaik
45% · 249 games51% · 471 game
Jakiroasdekor_r
Jakiro
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
57% · 337 games40% · 138 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed23:44
Pipsqueak+4 55%AVULUS 45%
The model gave 55% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by AVULUS in 43:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLowskill
51% · 220 games56% · 131 game
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Mars
MarsMalik
47% · 300 games43% · 294 games
UrsaDarkLord^
Ursa
Sand King
Sand Kingряф^^
52% · 127 games51% · 153 games
BrewmasterPalantimos
Brewmaster
Tiny
TinyEkki
44% · 308 games51% · 345 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Phoenix
Phoenixaik
50% · 153 games55% · 185 games
Baneasdekor_r
Bane
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 64%
Series resultAVULUS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2