ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Banesignature
tOfu · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 19 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 19 games
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 19 games
Weaversignature
tOfu · 19 games
Marssignature
Ace · 18 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 16 games
OG
Marsoften banned
ATF · 19 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 17 games
Bane
Misha · 14 games
Kunkkasignature
bzm · 13 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 12 games
Snapfire
Taiga · 11 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
476 picks · 629 bans
Tiny
451 picks · 504 bans
Bane
442 picks · 280 bans
Sand King
411 picks · 533 bans
Death Prophet
361 picks · 805 bans
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 560 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 521 bans
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:27
Gaimin Gladiators 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightBOOM
TimbersawATF
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
Troll WarlordYuragi
Chaos KnightAce
Tinybzm
EnchantressSeleri
DoomTaiga
BanetOfu
WindrangerCeb
Game 2prediction correct16:36
Gaimin Gladiators 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Magedyrachyo
Wraith KingYuragi
TinyBOOM
RazorATF
MarsAce
Void Spiritbzm
EnchantressSeleri
WindrangerCeb
GrimstroketOfu
ClockwerkTaiga
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2