Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Gambit Esportswin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gambit Esports
Bane
Panto · 2 games
Clockwerk
sayuw · 2 games
Mirana
sayuw · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
AfterLife · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
AfterLife · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 1 game
Juggernaut
Smiling Knight · 1 game
Hydra
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 28 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 27 games
Banesignature
Muka · 24 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 23 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 21 game
Weaver
Muka · 21 game
Chensignature
Zayac · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
476 picks · 627 bans
Tiny
451 picks · 504 bans
Bane
441 picks · 279 bans
Sand King
411 picks · 532 bans
Death Prophet
361 picks · 805 bans
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 560 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 520 bans
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Hydra
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total79% Gambit Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:23
Gambit Esports 79%Hydra 21%
The model gave 79% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Hydra in 30:52.
Game 2prediction missed31:7
Gambit Esports 79%Hydra 21%
The model gave 79% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Hydra in 29:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteGambit Esports · 79%
Series resultGambit Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2