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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 25 games
32%
Bane
Bane
Kaori · 23 games
39%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 18 games
28%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 13 games
38%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 13 games
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 13 games
15%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
25%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Iceberg · 12 games
33%

Rune Eaters

Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
25%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
473 picks · 627 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 502 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
439 picks · 279 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
409 picks · 531 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
361 picks · 805 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 557 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 519 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 558 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 54%
Hero pool strength58% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:19
Team Empire 44%Rune Eaters 56%
The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 31:14.
Game 2prediction correct29:38
Team Empire 44%Rune Eaters 56%
The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 42:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 56%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2