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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TSMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 25 games
64%
Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 21 game
81%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 18 games
72%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 18 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 18 games
78%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 16 games
94%

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 19 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
67%
Io
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
MoonMeander · 11 games
64%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
80%
Mars
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
70%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
472 picks · 626 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 502 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
439 picks · 278 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
409 picks · 531 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
361 picks · 804 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 556 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 518 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 558 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:13
Tundra Esports 56%TSM 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 45:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
55% · 149 games47% · 220 games
Linabryle-
Lina
Batrider
Batrider33
51% · 58 games43% · 61 game
Drow RangerTimado
Drow Ranger
Rubick
RubickNine
50% · 87 games42% · 37 games
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Doom
DoomSaksa
50% · 59 games58% · 106 games
Shadow ShamanMoonMeander
Shadow Shaman
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSneyking
48% · 141 game52% · 70 games
Elder TitanDuBu
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed23:51
Tundra Esports 57%TSM 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by TSM in 44:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
45% · 186 games52% · 228 games
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Necrophos
Necrophos33
57% · 33 games46% · 216 games
Puckbryle-
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierNine
50% · 200 games47% · 94 games
DoomMoonMeander
Doom
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSaksa
54% · 72 games59% · 82 games
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
Night Stalker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSneyking
47% · 242 games50% · 113 games
EnchantressDuBu
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed14:35
Tundra Esports 55%TSM 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by TSM in 31:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
48% · 114 games55% · 239 games
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Mars
MarsNine
45% · 394 games51% · 328 games
Pangolierbryle-
Pangolier
Viper
Viper33
41% · 105 games56% · 42 games
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Monkey King
Monkey KingSaksa
46% · 160 games53% · 121 game
DoomMoonMeander
Doom
Io
IoSneyking
59% · 142 games47% · 185 games
EnchantressDuBu
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Series resultTSM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3