ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 20 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 19 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 18 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 16 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 13 games
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 11 games
OG
Marsoften banned
ATF · 19 games
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 16 games
Bane
Misha · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
bzm · 12 games
Snapfire
Taiga · 11 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
471 picks · 628 bans
Tiny
451 picks · 500 bans
Bane
440 picks · 278 bans
Sand King
408 picks · 531 bans
Death Prophet
361 picks · 804 bans
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 557 bans
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 557 bans
Pangolier
339 picks · 516 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 60%
Hero pool strength62% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:26
Thunder Awaken 58%OG 42%
The model gave 58% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by OG in 27:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidPakazs
Chaos KnightYuragi
MarsDarkMago
RazorATF
SnapfireSacred
Void Spiritbzm
TuskMatthew
PhoenixTaiga
PugnaPanda
WindrangerCeb
Game 2prediction missed14:34
Thunder Awaken 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by OG in 32:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladePakazs
Faceless VoidYuragi
Storm SpiritDarkMago
Kunkkabzm
Sand KingSacred
ViperATF
MiranaMatthew
Monkey KingCeb
PugnaPanda
Nyx AssassinTaiga
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 66%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2