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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
No Sorrywin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Sorry

Bane
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 22 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 22 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
layme · 22 games
45%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 19 games
42%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 18 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 18 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
53%

Nemiga Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 28 games
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Ainkrad · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 20 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 18 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 18 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Kiritych · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
471 picks · 628 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 497 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
443 picks · 279 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
407 picks · 531 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
362 picks · 802 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 556 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
341 picks · 558 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 514 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total65% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:15
No Sorry 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 33:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKami
55% · 50 games48% · 190 games
TinyKiritych
Tiny
Mars
MarsLastHero-
51% · 324 games53% · 86 games
DoomTheChosenOne
Doom
Batrider
BatriderWorick
56% · 75 games51% · 229 games
SnapfireHeaven
Snapfire
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magey0nd
50% · 73 games46% · 72 games
Shadow ShamanVANSKOR
Shadow Shaman
Jakiro
JakiroBLACKARXANGEL
40% · 55 games
Game 2prediction missed16:30
No Sorry 57%Nemiga Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 27:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaWorick
53% · 196 games50% · 224 games
Wraith KingKiritych
Wraith King
Monkey King
Monkey KingKami
56% · 172 games48% · 324 games
SnapfireTheChosenOne
Snapfire
Mars
MarsLastHero-
51% · 412 games53% · 115 games
DoomHeaven
Doom
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magey0nd
47% · 82 games46% · 276 games
GrimstrokeVANSKOR
Grimstroke
Jakiro
JakiroBLACKARXANGEL
47% · 77 games
Game 3prediction correct39:27
No Sorry 60%Nemiga Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 36:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaKami
51% · 251 game43% · 3 games
AlchemistKiritych
Alchemist
Puck
PuckWorick
52% · 244 games51% · 485 games
MarsTheChosenOne
Mars
Axe
AxeLastHero-
45% · 83 games48% · 264 games
SnapfireHeaven
Snapfire
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magey0nd
46% · 88 games49% · 308 games
GrimstrokeVANSKOR
Grimstroke
Bane
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
59% · 394 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 65%
Series resultNo Sorry 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3