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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No Sorryloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 24 games
33%
Bane
Bane
Kaori · 23 games
39%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 16 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 12 games
42%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
25%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 12 games
17%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 10 games
50%

No Sorry

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
layme · 22 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 21 game
43%
Bane
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 20 games
45%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 18 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 17 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
467 picks · 628 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 495 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
443 picks · 279 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
404 picks · 530 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
359 picks · 798 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 552 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 555 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 511 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:13
Team Empire 45%No Sorry 55%
The model gave 55% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Team Empire in 41:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightxannii
51% · 124 games46% · 216 games
KunkkaKami
Kunkka
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDodren
49% · 265 games51% · 261 game
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingmeLes
51% · 205 games53% · 50 games
SlardarLastHero-
Slardar
Mirana
Miranaillusion
58% · 179 games43% · 124 games
Skywrath Magey0nd
Skywrath Mage
Grimstroke
Grimstroke633
47% · 305 games52% · 427 games
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Bane
Game 2prediction correct27:32
Team Empire 43%No Sorry 57%
The model gave 57% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 44:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorxannii
49% · 212 games53% · 276 games
MedusaKami
Medusa
Mars
MarsmeLes
49% · 548 games55% · 298 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDodren
45% · 308 games50% · 109 games
AxeLastHero-
Axe
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeillusion
47% · 335 games53% · 366 games
Hoodwinky0nd
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
Clockwerk633
47% · 190 games52% · 544 games
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Bane
Game 3prediction missed29:5
Team Empire 44%No Sorry 56%
The model gave 56% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Team Empire in 29:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoommeLes
53% · 162 games44% · 59 games
Phantom LancerKami
Phantom Lancer
Tiny
Tinyxannii
49% · 295 games50% · 396 games
MarsLastHero-
Mars
Monkey King
Monkey KingDodren
54% · 308 games45% · 236 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageillusion
46% · 114 games46% · 227 games
Snapfirey0nd
Snapfire
Abaddon
Abaddon633
60% · 195 games51% · 156 games
EnchantressBLACKARXANGEL
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 60%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3