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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

BETBOOM TEAM

Bane
Bane
Bignum · 12 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
CeMaTheSlayeR · 12 games
42%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
fn · 11 games
82%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
56%
Luna
Lunasignature
7jesu · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
fn · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
467 picks · 627 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 494 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
443 picks · 279 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
404 picks · 530 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
359 picks · 796 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 551 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 555 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 508 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:14
beastcoast 36%BETBOOM TEAM 64%
The model gave 64% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 44:39.
Game 2prediction correct19:28
beastcoast 36%BETBOOM TEAM 64%
The model gave 64% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 35:34.
Game 3prediction correct35:36
beastcoast 36%BETBOOM TEAM 64%
The model gave 64% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 49:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 64%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3