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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 1:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gambit Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
25%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
33%

Gambit Esports

Bane
Bane
Panto · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sayuw · 2 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
sayuw · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
AfterLife · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
AfterLife · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 1 game
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
Smiling Knight · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
468 picks · 628 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 493 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
444 picks · 280 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
401 picks · 530 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
359 picks · 797 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 550 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 554 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
333 picks · 509 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 69%
Hero pool strength50% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Gambit Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:37
Rune Eaters 27%Gambit Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Gambit Esports in 46:27.
Game 2prediction correct43:51
Rune Eaters 27%Gambit Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Gambit Esports in 1:03:40.
Game 3prediction correct47:28
Rune Eaters 27%Gambit Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Gambit Esports in 39:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteGambit Esports · 73%
Series resultGambit Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3