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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Wayfarersloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
cybercatswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wayfarers

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Lorenof · 17 games
53%
Bane
Bane
HappyDyurara · 12 games
42%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
HappyDyurara · 11 games
82%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 11 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Alberkaaa · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Squad1x · 10 games
90%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Immersion · 10 games
70%

cybercats

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fezor · 8 games
38%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
29%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shigetsu · 5 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fezor · 5 games
20%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Shigetsu · 5 games
20%
Bane
Bane
Hduo · 4 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Fezor · 4 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
468 picks · 628 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 493 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
444 picks · 280 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
401 picks · 530 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
359 picks · 797 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 550 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 554 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
333 picks · 509 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength63% Wayfarers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:30
Wayfarers 47%cybercats 53%
The model gave 53% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 46:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerAlberkaaa
50% · 79 games46% · 229 games
WeaverShigetsu
Weaver
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
44% · 267 games50% · 264 games
Ember SpiritEgor
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFunn1k
62% · 183 games54% · 15 games
VisageDkFogas
Visage
Snapfire
SnapfireImmersion
40% · 318 games51% · 98 games
DoomFezor
Doom
Pugna
PugnaHappyDyurara
46% · 121 game59% · 362 games
BaneHduo
Bane
Game 2prediction missed19:14
Wayfarers 47%cybercats 53%
The model gave 53% on cybercats — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 34:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorAlberkaaa
53% · 181 game48% · 250 games
KunkkaEgor
Kunkka
Leshrac
LeshracSquad1x
57% · 136 games43% · 108 games
BloodseekerShigetsu
Bloodseeker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFunn1k
66% · 162 games48% · 63 games
ViperDkFogas
Viper
Io
IoImmersion
54% · 205 games40% · 181 game
HoodwinkFezor
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorHappyDyurara
50% · 158 games41% · 240 games
GrimstrokeHduo
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct23:26
Wayfarers 45%cybercats 55%
The model gave 55% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 47:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanFunn1k
55% · 75 games48% · 173 games
KunkkaShigetsu
Kunkka
Spectre
SpectreAlberkaaa
44% · 36 games48% · 43 games
NecrophosEgor
Necrophos
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
55% · 229 games56% · 19 games
VisageDkFogas
Visage
Snapfire
SnapfireImmersion
45% · 210 games46% · 108 games
ClockwerkFezor
Clockwerk
Pugna
PugnaHappyDyurara
45% · 108 games59% · 315 games
BaneHduo
Bane
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 58%
Series resultcybercats 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3