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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 19 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
67%
Io
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
MoonMeander · 11 games
64%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
70%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
50%

Gaimin Gladiators

Bane
Banesignature
tOfu · 23 games
65%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 19 games
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 19 games
74%
Weaver
Weaversignature
tOfu · 19 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Ace · 18 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 16 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 15 games
87%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
467 picks · 633 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
450 picks · 282 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 493 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
401 picks · 531 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
360 picks · 797 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 552 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 555 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 510 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:21
TSM 48%Gaimin Gladiators 52%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by TSM in 44:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTimado
47% · 63 games51% · 168 games
TimbersawAce
Timbersaw
Kunkka
Kunkkabryle-
50% · 255 games47% · 253 games
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
Monkey King
Phoenix
PhoenixMoonMeander
52% · 176 games51% · 260 games
TinyBOOM
Tiny
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
48% · 508 games54% · 166 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Pugna
PugnaDuBu
50% · 111 games50% · 266 games
GrimstroketOfu
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed37:17
TSM 48%Gaimin Gladiators 52%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by TSM in 45:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTimado
54% · 54 games46% · 249 games
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
Monkey King
Pangolier
Pangolierbryle-
47% · 187 games62% · 146 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
47% · 403 games46% · 252 games
PuckBOOM
Puck
Phoenix
PhoenixMoonMeander
44% · 131 game54% · 100 games
Shadow ShamantOfu
Shadow Shaman
Abaddon
AbaddonDuBu
54% · 144 games49% · 172 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 50%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2