Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
ARCREDloss 0:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:1
CChekoldyriki2.0win 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ARCRED
No games played over 6 months.
Chekoldyriki2.0
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
468 picks · 633 bans
Bane
454 picks · 281 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 492 bans
Sand King
400 picks · 530 bans
Death Prophet
359 picks · 791 bans
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 546 bans
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 555 bans
Pangolier
335 picks · 509 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% ARCRED
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% ARCRED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteARCRED · 76%
Series resultChekoldyriki2.0 0:1
Series predictionmissed