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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 19 games
84%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 18 games
89%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 17 games
76%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 16 games
88%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 15 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 12 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 11 games
91%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 11 games
73%

BETBOOM TEAM

Bane
Bane
Bignum · 12 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
CeMaTheSlayeR · 12 games
42%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
fn · 11 games
82%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
56%
Luna
Lunasignature
7jesu · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
fn · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
473 picks · 633 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
453 picks · 287 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 491 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
399 picks · 528 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
361 picks · 788 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 545 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 553 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
332 picks · 505 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 65%
Hero pool strength62% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:26
Thunder Awaken 67%BETBOOM TEAM 33%
The model gave 67% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 40:39.
Game 2prediction missed40:17
Thunder Awaken 67%BETBOOM TEAM 33%
The model gave 67% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 48:03.
Game 3prediction correct23:30
Thunder Awaken 67%BETBOOM TEAM 33%
The model gave 67% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 43:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 67%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3