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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 20 games
80%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 18 games
72%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 18 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 17 games
65%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 15 games
80%

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 25 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 12 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 12 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 11 games
73%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
473 picks · 630 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
452 picks · 287 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 491 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
399 picks · 527 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
361 picks · 788 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 545 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
343 picks · 553 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 505 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total53% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:13
Tundra Esports 52%Team Spirit 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
59% · 34 games38% · 79 games
UrsaYatoro
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierNine
53% · 270 games48% · 176 games
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
Puck
Lycan
Lycan33
51% · 77 games53% · 51 game
Chaos KnightCollapse
Chaos Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
50% · 113 games53% · 221 game
GrimstrokeMira
Grimstroke
Snapfire
SnapfireSaksa
43% · 283 games57% · 250 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Game 2prediction missed45:36
Tundra Esports 55%Team Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 59:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
52% · 138 games46% · 116 games
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
TinyNine
50% · 275 games53% · 202 games
Dragon KnightCollapse
Dragon Knight
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
57% · 131 game51% · 262 games
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
55% · 231 game46% · 246 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSneyking
45% · 316 games45% · 265 games
HoodwinkMiposhka
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct33:11
Tundra Esports 56%Team Spirit 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNine
55% · 155 games45% · 173 games
LunaYatoro
Luna
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
48% · 114 games40% · 172 games
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
Puck
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
62% · 122 games45% · 228 games
Dragon KnightCollapse
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomSaksa
51% · 98 games52% · 114 games
RubickMiposhka
Rubick
Bane
BaneSneyking
59% · 325 games43% · 127 games
PugnaMira
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 53%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3