Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs predictionCChekoldyriki2.0loss 0:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:1
ARCREDwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chekoldyriki2.0
No games played over 6 months.
ARCRED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
474 picks · 632 bans
Bane
452 picks · 289 bans
Tiny
439 picks · 491 bans
Sand King
399 picks · 529 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 788 bans
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 547 bans
Ember Spirit
343 picks · 553 bans
Pangolier
331 picks · 506 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Chekoldyriki2.0
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% ARCRED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteARCRED · 70%
Series resultARCRED 0:1
Series predictioncorrect