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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TSMwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 16 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 13 games
46%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
58%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 12 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 11 games
36%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
64%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 10 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 9 games
67%

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 18 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
67%
Io
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 11 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 9 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 9 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
473 picks · 631 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
451 picks · 290 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 490 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
398 picks · 529 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 788 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 554 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 548 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 506 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:23
Team Liquid 45%TSM 55%
The model gave 55% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 30:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMATUMBAMAN
51% · 62 games54% · 249 games
Monkey KingTimado
Monkey King
Visage
VisagemiCKe
50% · 24 games49% · 230 games
Storm Spiritbryle-
Storm Spirit
Mars
Marszai
51% · 430 games44% · 59 games
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Io
IoBoxi
55% · 160 games51% · 277 games
HoodwinkMoonMeander
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
47% · 227 games45% · 88 games
PugnaDuBu
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 57%
Series resultTSM 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1