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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Thunder Awakenwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 24 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 12 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 11 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 11 games
73%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
73%

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 18 games
83%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 17 games
88%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 16 games
88%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 16 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 15 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 12 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 11 games
91%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
473 picks · 631 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
451 picks · 290 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 490 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
398 picks · 529 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 788 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 554 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 548 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 506 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 77%
Hero pool strength56% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:55
Team Spirit 51%Thunder Awaken 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 48:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 151 game49% · 126 games
Chaos KnightPakazs
Chaos Knight
Spectre
SpectreYatoro
63% · 43 games47% · 338 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Sand King
Sand KingCollapse
48% · 243 games59% · 39 games
VenomancerSacred
Venomancer
Mirana
MiranaMira
52% · 217 games41% · 244 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Bane
BaneMiposhka
52% · 336 games50% · 243 games
AbaddonPanda
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 51%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1