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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Thunder Awakenwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 16 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 13 games
46%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
58%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 12 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 11 games
36%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
64%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 10 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 9 games
67%

Thunder Awaken

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 17 games
88%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 17 games
82%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 16 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 15 games
87%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 15 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 11 games
73%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 11 games
91%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 10 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
472 picks · 630 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
450 picks · 290 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 489 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
398 picks · 528 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 788 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 554 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 547 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 505 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 76%
Hero pool strength62% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:38
Team Liquid 38%Thunder Awaken 62%
The model gave 62% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 35:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzMATUMBAMAN
41% · 22 games54% · 123 games
KunkkaPakazs
Kunkka
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightmiCKe
53% · 285 games51% · 112 games
TimbersawSacred
Timbersaw
Enigma
Enigmazai
54% · 41 game46% · 259 games
MarsDarkMago
Mars
Abaddon
AbaddoniNSaNiA
56% · 228 games48% · 110 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoxi
45% · 102 games47% · 74 games
ViperPanda
Viper
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 68%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1