Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:1
FQfrom quals to tiwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Bane
Sammyboy · 19 games
Snapfire
Alexxo · 19 games
Kunkkaoften banned
v1olent- · 13 games
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 13 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Dendi · 12 games
Weaveroften banned
Lagoona · 12 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 11 games
Medusaoften banned
v1olent- · 11 games
from quals to ti
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
472 picks · 629 bans
Bane
450 picks · 290 bans
Tiny
438 picks · 489 bans
Sand King
398 picks · 528 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 788 bans
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 554 bans
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 547 bans
Pangolier
331 picks · 504 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% from quals to ti
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% from quals to ti
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:46
B8 Esports 41%from quals to ti 59%
The model gave 59% on from quals to ti — the game was taken by from quals to ti in 42:14.
Model check result
Model favoritefrom quals to ti · 59%
Series resultfrom quals to ti 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1