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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
X3win 1:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Chekoldyriki2.0loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 21 game
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
30%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 7 games
43%
Lina
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
29%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
43%

Chekoldyriki2.0

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
472 picks · 629 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
450 picks · 290 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 489 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
398 picks · 528 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 788 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 554 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 547 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 504 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Chekoldyriki2.0
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 66%
Series resultX3 1:0
Series predictioncorrect