ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Thunder Awakenwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Banesignature
DuBu · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 9 games
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 9 games
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 9 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Thunder Awaken
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 17 games
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 17 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 16 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 15 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 15 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 11 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
472 picks · 628 bans
Bane
450 picks · 289 bans
Tiny
438 picks · 489 bans
Sand King
397 picks · 528 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 788 bans
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 554 bans
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 546 bans
Pangolier
331 picks · 504 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 75%
Hero pool strength57% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 63%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:1
Series predictioncorrect