European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ilbirs eSports
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
xsvampire · 3 games
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
xsvampire · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
egx · 2 games
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 57 games
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 50 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 45 games
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 38 games
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 34 games
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 32 games
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
Slardaroften banned
Ankou · 30 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
585 picks · 818 bans
Tiny
527 picks · 546 bans
Tusk
427 picks · 394 bans
Warlock
424 picks · 293 bans
Shadow Demon
386 picks · 1014 bans
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 656 bans
Mars
366 picks · 581 bans
Centaur Warrunner
349 picks · 515 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Ilbirs eSports 23%Rune Eaters 77%
The model gave 77% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters.
Game 2prediction correct
Ilbirs eSports 23%Rune Eaters 77%
The model gave 77% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 77%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2